Second CBAM certificate price published: what two stable quarters mean for importers

The European Commissionpublished the CBAM certificate price for the second quarter of 2026 on 6 July,at €75.28 per tonne of CO2e. It sits within eight cents of the first quarter's€75.36. For importers building up their first CBAM liabilities, that is welcomenews.

How the price is set

The quarterly price is thevolume weighted average of EU Emissions Trading System allowances auctionedduring the quarter. Goods imported between April and June 2026 carry the Q2price; goods imported between January and March carry the Q1 price. From 2027the calculation moves to a weekly average, so the price will track the carbonmarket much more closely.

No money changes hands yet.Certificates go on sale in February 2027, and the first surrender deadline is30 September 2027, covering all of 2026's imports. The published prices tellyou what each quarter's imports will eventually cost.

What stability is worth

Two quarters within a narrowband makes forecasting simpler. An importer bringing in covered goods can nowput a reasonably firm number against the liability accruing on everyconsignment. As a rough illustration, a tonne of imported steel with two tonnesof embedded CO2e carries a headline charge of around €150 at current prices,before deductions.

Those deductions matter. Thefree allocation adjustment removes a large share of the liability in 2026, andcarbon prices already paid in the country of origin can be credited too. Wehave covered both on this site, and together they mean most importers' firstbills will be well below the headline arithmetic.

Why the price will move

The certificate price followsthe EU ETS, and the ETS is tightening. Free allocation for CBAM sectors phasesdown each year to 2034, auction supply is shrinking, and negotiations onlinking the UK and EU carbon markets add another variable. Analysts expectupward pressure as the decade progresses. A stable €75 today is a planningassumption, not a promise.

What to do now

Importers should be loggingembedded emissions quarter by quarter and applying the published price to eachbatch. That running total is the number your finance team needs for 2027budgeting, and it is far easier to build as you go than to reconstruct nextspring.

CBAM-Assured helps importers andtheir suppliers put the monitoring and reporting in place to keep those numbersaccurate. Contact us if you would like support.

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